Catacomb Resident Blog

Guessing Events

11 February 2023

I'm just guessing.

A reader asked me to expand on yesterday's post to suggest political and economic events in the near term. Keep in mind that I rather expect a major CME to disrupt the energy grid within the next two years. Thus, human choices will only aggravate our response to natural disasters. One way or another, things are going to get very difficult.

I'm expecting the US/NATO to experience a major setback in Ukraine. We know that the lobbying from different angles keeps things confused, but there is a discernible path the US government has been following. Meanwhile, Russia has been very consistent and deeply committed to their mission of protecting Russian-speaking people in Ukraine. Barring a sudden change in current policy trends, the West is going to get seriously bloodied by Russia before summer.

Next, I see the high probability that the fallout from that miscalculation will cause, or contribute to, a constitutional crisis in the US. Given how truculent and hardened the various parties are, such a crisis is inevitable, so it's only a question of what issue(s) will become the battleground. This kind of thing will take a while to play out, but I believe it will begin this calendar year.

But within two years, the federal government will become virtually powerless. The states are already prepping for this. I doubt the federal system will officially dissolve so much as simply lose the leverage to keep the states under control. But with the agitation will come a lot of violence. The ground troops like Antifa, BLM, and so forth will be mobilized and this is when ordinary urban folks will need guns or need to leave town.

The various services that governments provide are already starting to unravel at the edges. During the next two years, that system will shred. I fully expect that anyone receiving federal pension payments will lose them within two years. At the same time, the banks are already signaling that they intend to protect themselves from losses by making it much harder on their ordinary customers. At some point, whatever you have in the bank will be inaccessible. If you are wealthy, buy precious metals and a home safe. Better still, invest in things that will enhance your survival and comfort in the midst of chaos. For those like me on the lower economic levels, the stuff that keeps you alive is way more important than precious metals or other investments.

Think about what you do, or would expect you need to do, to survive. Purchase toward that end. I'm investing any windfall in things like my bicycle, and specialty tools with spare parts in particular, since parts and services will be hard to get for a while. And since I like to write, I have a stack of writing materials on hand. I fully expect the Internet to become essentially useless within that two-year time frame. Not necessarily gone, but it will be very difficult to use the way we use it now. I'm printing off now information that will be valuable to me.

But then, some of the economy will come back, though greatly changed. It will be much more localized. We are likely to be surprised by the mixture of what remains available throughout the troubles and what comes back onto the market later. Still, think in terms of what is locally likely. After decades of US de-industrialization, what would folks in your area likely try to restore when imports drop to near zero? I keep paper goods in storage because we've never had a paper mill in my area. We've got lots of agriculture and petroleum, and a little bit of heavy industry, but nothing so complex as a paper plant.

As always, the key to survival is decentralization. The state governments will be our future, so make sure you are ready to deal with how your state does things. However, the real key will be a local community. If you can cultivate strong bonds with folks in your area, let that become your clan for the sake of survival. Even better would be a covenant community, but that is really hard to do right now. Give it time and be ready.

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